Complexity, Agents, Volatility, Evidence and Scale (CAVES)
Investigator(s)
Principal investigator:
Scott Moss, Centre for Policy Modelling, Manchester Metropolitan University Business School, UK
E-mail: scott(at)cfpm.org
Abstract
The purpose of the CAVES project has been to couple policy concerns for complex human-environmental systems with linked physical, biological and social models based soundly in complexity science. We have produced a constructive demonstration of modeling procedures for the formation of social policy in conditions of uncertainty due to complexity. To do so, we have developed a set of case studies of land use change driven by a variety of physical, biological and sociopolitical phenomena. These case studies have provided extensive qualitative and quantitative evidence to constrain agent based models to be implemented for each case study. The three case study regions as originally chosen are: the Grampian Region of Scotland; the middle Odra river valley in Poland; and the Limpopo Province of South Africa. During the course of the project, a smaller area has been chosen within each region for detailed study: Upper Deeside within Grampian, the Rogow Legnicki and Peclaw areas of the Odra valley, and Tubatse Municipality of Sekhukhune District in Limpopo Province. The regions chosen for the case studies are differentiated by their observed sensitivity to external pressures and the major problems faced by the land managers and rural communities concerned.
URL
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